Beyond the Earth: US-China Space Rivalry and Its Implications on India

Abstract

This article examines the intensifying space rivalry between the United States and China and its implications for India's strategic positioning in the evolving space domain. Once dominated by Cold War-era competition, outer space has reemerged as a contested arena for geopolitical influence, national security, and economic interests. The study traces the historical trajectory of this rivalry, highlighting China's rapid advancements—such as the Tiangong space station and lunar missions—and the U.S. response through initiatives like the Artemis program and the establishment of the Space Force. Against this backdrop, India faces critical decisions as it balances its traditionally civilian-focused space program with growing militarization trends, exemplified by its 2019 anti-satellite (ASAT) test. The article employs realist and neo-classical realist frameworks to analyze India's strategic calculus, emphasizing its pursuit of autonomy through diversified partnerships and selective engagement with both U.S. and Chinese space initiatives. Key challenges include safeguarding space assets, fostering commercial innovation, and shaping global governance norms. The study concludes with policy recommendations for India, urging a comprehensive space security strategy, enhanced public-private collaboration, and proactive multilateral diplomacy to navigate this complex rivalry while preserving strategic flexibility.

Keywords: US-China Space Rivalry, India's Space Policy, Strategic Autonomy, Militarization Of Space, Anti-Satellite (ASAT) Capabilities, Artemis Accords, Tiangong Space Station, Space Governance, Public-Private Partnerships, Neo-Classical Realism.