POWER TRANSITIONS, THE THUCYDIDES TRAP, AND STRATEGIC RIVALRIES: A CRITICAL EXAMINATION OF ASIA-PACIFIC SECURITY DYNAMICS COMPETITION

Abstract

This research generally emphases on the character of regional alliances in the security dynamics of the regions, like QUAD, AUKUS, and ASEAN countries. Significant geopolitical changes and changing security dynamics have recently been witnessed in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly, after the withdrawal of the US forces and allies from Afghanistan in 2021. Recently, these alliances have gone through a transition period specifically between emerging powers, and superpowers in their economic and security means, respectively. How effectively does the US persuade its “Collective Defense Policy” in the region after the revival of the strategic alliances, especially Quad and AUKUS? How is political and economic-based ASEAN looking towards the US for its security, how effectively is China able to counter the “Containment Policy” of the USA and allies, and what concerns are there for security matters of the region? This chapter will examine through the lens of “Power Transition Theory”, where emerging power, (China) tries to dominate the existing power (U.S). The study will also analyze the theory of “Thucydides' Trap” by general ideas to share China's hand in the case. The qualitative method will be used to give a thorough overview of the emerging development of regional security mainly focusing on the birth of regional alliances and the Trump &Biden Administrations and China’s concerns for the region. The research will combine case studies like the Taiwan Strait Crisis and, the South Korean Nuclear Crisis and give a concise analysis of the situation.

Keywords: QUAD, AUKUS, ASEAN, Power Transition Theory and Thucydides trap