Great-Power Restraint and Regional Fragmentation during US-Iran War 2026

Abstract

This article examines the strategic implications of the war that erupted between the United States and Israel and Iran on February 28, 2026, following an attack that killed Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, with hostilities continuing since mid-July 2026. Moving beyond its initial framing as a great-power rivalry, the research reveals the conflict's broader dimensions: regional alliance dynamics, energy security, and the legality of great-power action. Using qualitative, open-source documentary research drawing on reports, diplomatic correspondence, and scholarly commentary from February to July 2026 the study applies hegemonic stability, power transition, and realist theories, focusing on alliance formation. Findings show that the war's systemic effects stem less from direct great-power military confrontation, as Russia and China avoided direct involvement, than from its erosion of international law, with many states, including coalition members, questioning the legitimacy of force under the UN Charter. The study concludes that despite continued US dominance, the war underscores a shift toward global multipolarity.

Keywords: 2026 Iran War, Geopolitics, Great-Power Politics, Multipolarity, Hegemonic Stability, Strait of Hormuz, International Law, Gulf Security, Alliance Politics.

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.22042892