Structural Realism and South Asia’s Strategic Uplift in the Us-China Rivalry, 2010-2025

Abstract

This article use Structural Realism to examine the shift in United States-China relations from 2010 to 2025, and the attendant South Asia becoming a zone of Great Power rivalry. The argument of this article is that the structural change from the American-led unipolar international system to an emerging bipolar arrangement of capabilities, induced by the economic and military ascendance of China, is the reason for the strategic realignment of both Washington and Beijing since 2010. The study outlines the evolution of the American "Pivot to Asia" and its strategic-competition doctrine, as well as China's parallel shift from "low-profile accumulation" toward assertive regional projection through the Belt and Road Initiative. It demonstrates that these systemic level policy changes, and not political or ideological preference at home, explain the constant reference to South Asia in the calculations of both powers over different and ideologically opposed American administrations. The article concludes that Structural Realism, in conjunction with Power Transition Theory, provides a concise but empirically satisfactory analysis of the "systemic causes of the rivalry," and that a full explanation of this rivalry is not possible without the dimension of structural causes.

Keywords: Structural Realism, great-power competition, United States-China rivalry, South Asia, Power Transition Theory, Belt and Road Initiative