Making New Provinces in Pakistan: Challenges and Prospects

Abstract

In July and August 2026, Pakistan’s Interior Minister Mohsin Naqvi stirred up old arguments about the country’s constitution by saying that the system has “collapsed” and asking political parties to agree on the need to create new provinces and administrative divisions. The Inter-Services Public Relations department distanced the military from these remarks, while the Pakistan Peoples Party, Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, the Sindh provincial government, and many others responded critically. This article uses the 2026 controversy as a live case study through which to examine the recurring constitutional, political, and institutional challenges obstructing the formal creation of new provinces in Pakistan, and to assess what the episode reveals about future prospects for reform. Drawing on federalism theory, including Riker's bargaining model, Elazar's federal principle, Watts's comparative federal typology, and Adeney's account of ethnic federalism, alongside close analysis of Article 239 of the Constitution and the historical record of the Bahawalpur, Saraiki, and Hazara movements, the article argues that Pakistan's constitutional supermajority procedure, combined with the security establishment's studied ambivalence and the entrenched interests of dominant provincial elites, continues to make near-term implementation of new provinces unlikely despite renewed high-level political attention.

Keywords: new provinces, Pakistan, federalism, Article 239, Mohsin Naqvi, ISPR, governance reform & constitutional amendment.

https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21929589